Analysis of PG&E's Residential End-Use Metered Data to Improve Electricity Demand Forecasts

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It is generally acknowledged that improvements to end-use load shape and peak demand forecast for electricity are limited primarily by the absence of reliable end-use data. In this report, we analyze recent end-use metered data collected by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company from more than 700 residential customers to develop new inputs for the load shape and peak demand electricity forecasting models used by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company and the California Energy Commission. Hourly load shapes are normalized to facilitate separate accounting (by the models) of annual energy use and the distribution of that energy use over the hours of the day. Cooling electricity consumption by central air-conditioning is represented analytically as a function of climate. Limited analysis of annual energy use, including unit energy consumption (UEC), and of the allocation of energy use to seasons and system peak days, is also presented.

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