China’s Methane Mitigation Potential: An Assessment of Costs and Uncertainties through 2060

China’s Methane Mitigation Potential: An Assessment of Costs and Uncertainties through 2060

November 17, 2023

Emissions of methane, a short-lived climate pollutant and potent greenhouse gas, have contributed to approximately 30% of the current rise in global average temperatures. Reducing methane emissions is critical to slowing the adverse impacts of climate change in the near term (e.g., 2030) and can provide additional co-benefits in improved health conditions and agricultural yield. China is the world’s largest methane emitter and accounts for nearly 20% of total global methane emissions. China has recently emphasized the urgency of methane reductions in its domestic policies and the 2021 U.S.-China Joint Glasgow Declaration.

This study aims to provide new insights into China’s methane emission pathways through 2060 and to contribute to understanding new and emerging opportunities for reducing China’s methane emissions cost-effectively. This analysis focuses on analyzing different methane mitigation pathways by modeling additional methane emission sources such as abandoned coal mines and aquaculture, uncertainties and sensitivities, and new and emerging mitigation measures. We analyzed the sub-sectoral mitigation potential and related costs and benefits for all methane sources under two key mitigation scenarios. The analysis also identifies key remaining sources of methane emissions in 2060, and implications for future research and analysis.