New framework for incorporating electrification into long-term electricity load forecasts
In a new report, Berkeley Lab presents a framework (Figure 1) to develop long-term electricity load forecasts that account for the impacts of building and transportation electrification. The framework identifies key modeling decisions and provides examples from recent Berkeley Lab technical assistance to two municipal utilities: Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) and Fort Collins Utilities. For each step of the framework, we provide guiding questions, suggestions, and examples from our technical assistance projects.
Figure 1. Framework for incorporating building and transportation electrification into long-term electricity load forecasts
The framework focuses on how to use publicly available end-use load profiles for forecasting building and transportation electrification
We show how analysts can use end-use load profiles for building electrification and electric vehicle charging in long-term electricity load forecasts. We present a method for scaling end-use load profiles to expected levels of technology adoption and adding them to historical utility metering data to estimate hourly demand over the forecast period (Figure 2). This bottom-up approach supports scenario-based load forecasts that analysts can use to compare the peak demand impacts of different electrification technology adoption and efficiency levels.
Figure 2. 2040 net demand on winter peak day in select Fort Collins Utilities feeder by year
Examples from technical assistance projects illustrate how to use long-term load forecasts that account for building and transportation electrification to answer planning questions.
For Fort Collins Utilities and SMUD we identified the electrification technologies that drove increases in peak demand (Figure 3) and estimated how envelope upgrades and increasing the efficiency of building electrification technologies can reduce increases in peak demand from building electrification. For Fort Collins Utilities, we examined whether increases in load from building and transportation electrification resulted in violations of thermal design thresholds in 15 select feeders. For SMUD, we modeled a worst-case scenario in which heat pumps operated at minimum efficiency and EV charging efficiency declined during a cold snap.
Figure 3. Increases to summer and winter gross peak demand in SMUD service territory through 2045
See the guidance document and the reports developed for Sacramento Municipal Utility District and Fort Collins Utilities for additional details.
The authors of this report are Sean Murphy ([email protected]), Margaret Pigman ([email protected]) and Natalie Mims Frick ([email protected]). The U.S. Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office supported this work.