Forecasting Wind Energy Costs and Cost Drivers: The Views of the World’s Leading Experts
|Title||Forecasting Wind Energy Costs and Cost Drivers: The Views of the World’s Leading Experts|
|Year of Publication||2016|
|Authors||Wiser, Ryan H., Karen Jenni, Joachim Seel, Erin Baker, Maureen M. Hand, Eric Lantz, and Aaron Smith|
Wind energy supply has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, the long-term contribution of wind to future energy supply, and the degree to which policy support is necessary to motivate higher levels of deployment, depends—in part—on the future costs of both onshore and offshore wind. In this study we summarize the results of an expert survey of 163 of the world’s foremost wind experts, aimed at better understanding future costs and technology advancement possibilities. Three wind applications were covered: onshore (land-based) wind, fixed-bottom offshore wind, and floating offshore wind. Results are summarized in the “infographic” below.
Overall, results suggest significant opportunities for cost reductions, but also underlying uncertainties:
Overall, insights gained through the expert survey complement other tools for evaluating cost reduction potential, and can help inform policy and planning, R&D, and industry strategy.
A peer-reviewed article version of this research project has been published in the journal Nature Energy: http://rdcu.be/khRk
A webinar recording highlighting the findings of this research project can be foundhere.
Are We Understating the Potential for (and Uncertainty in) Wind Energy Cost Reductions? (link)
Cost Reductions for Offshore Wind: Signs of Progress, Expectations for More (link)
Reducing Wind Energy Costs through Increased Turbine Size: Is the Sky the Limit? (link)
Below we provide background information for the "Survey of Expert Opinions on Future Costs of Wind Energy", that was implemented by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, in collaboration with IEA Wind and its member countries.*
The survey instrument that was used for the expert elicitation during the months of October and November 2015 is available here (link).
A discussion of our definition of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be found here (link).
A discussion of our definition of a "typical project" in future years can be found here (link).
The online LCOE calculator that was available to experts while responding to the survey can be found here (link).
A currency translator that was available to experts while responding to the survey can be found here (link).
|LBNL Report Number|| |
|Report PDF||4.04 MB|
|Full Summary PDF||4.31 MB|
|Brief Summary PDF||1.08 MB|
|Summary Graphic PNG||423.43 KB|
|Webinar Slides PDF||2.4 MB|
|Fact Sheet: Understating Wind Costs PDF||605.84 KB|
|Fact Sheet: Cost Reductions for Offshore Wind PDF||594.76 KB|
|Fact Sheet: Reducing Wind Energy Costs through Increased Turbine Size PDF||1.26 MB|