Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs

Publication Type

Journal Article

Date Published

10/2016

Abstract

Wind energy supply has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, the long-term contribution of wind to future energy supply, and the degree to which policy support is necessary to motivate higher levels of deployment, depends—in part—on the future costs of both onshore and offshore wind. Here, we summarize the results of an expert elicitation survey of 163 of the world’s foremost wind experts, aimed at better understanding future costs and technology advancement possibilities. Results suggest significant opportunities for cost reductions, but also underlying uncertainties. Under the median scenario, experts anticipate 24%–30% reductions by 2030 and 35%–41% reductions by 2050 across the three wind applications studied. Costs could be even lower: experts predict a 10% chance that reductions will be more than 40% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050. Insights gained through expert elicitation complement other tools for evaluating cost-reduction potential, and help inform policy and planning, R&D, and industry strategy.

Journal

Nature Energy

Volume

1

Year of Publication

2016

Notes

This is a pre-print accepted version of an article published in Nature Energy. To see the LBNL Report related to this journal article, click here.

Short Title

Nat. Energy

Pagination

16135

Issue

10

Organization: 

Research Areas: